The FullCount: Prado, Pronk, Rolen - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

The FullCount: Prado, Pronk, Rolen Stuck

Posted on February 1, 2013 at 11:45 AM.

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This Sunday is exciting for football fans. It marks the end of another season and is one of biggest days in sport. But, baseball fans have a much different perspective on Super Sunday. Once the spectacle of the final football game of the season finishes, it is the unofficial beginning of the 2013 baseball season. In a little more than a week, the two most beautiful words a baseball fan can hear are finally a reality: pitchers and catchers. Those three words mean that the baseball season is almost here.

The next week will be excruciatingly slow. There are typically very few major transactions, although Roger Clemens was traded to the Yankees just days before Spring Training officially started. But, for the most part, teams are looking to avoid arbitration, signing veterans to Minor League contracts, and fill out the organization as efficiently as possible. Aside from Michael Bourn, most of the remaining free agents are surplus relievers and role players. Many times, teams can find value in those last minute signings. Those value signings have already begun to take place.

Pitch One: Martin Prado Gets Four Years, $40 Million
Technically, this is a three year $33 million extension as Prado was slated to make approximately $7 million or so through arbitration this winter. On the surface, the value of the contract is right in line with Prado�s production. Since becoming a regular in 2009, the right handed utility man has averaged .294/.342/.436 with 36 doubles, 3 triples, 12 home runs, 60 RBI and 7 stolen bases. In other words, he is a poor man�s Michael Young.

That�s not an insult or anything as Young had quite a bit of value in his prime. But, this contract has to be viewed within the prism of trading Justin Upton away. Upton is owed $38.5 million over the next three seasons, which will cover his age 25 through 27 seasons. With Prado entering his age 29 season, the odds of him outperforming his contract are long. Upton is just entering his prime seasons. If he produces as expected, he will be one of the best bargains in the sport.

Not only did the Diamondbacks downgrade their talent, they did so without really saving much money. That lack of savings also doesn�t give them much of a chance to get more value for that money. Given the fact that Prado will be their primary third baseman, his value of position flexibility is also negated a bit.

Martin Prado is a good Major League Baseball player. He hits well, can play multiple positions, and is said to be one of the good guys. Based on that, his contract is more than fair. But, viewed through the prism of the trade and the salary extension, the Diamondbacks are not getting as much value and talent in the deal.

Pitch Two: Travis Hafner and the Yankees
The Yankees have been very quiet this offseason. Usually big spenders, the Yankees have adhered to their budget, re-signing their own pitchers, signing Kevin Youkilis, and then signing role players such as Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera. Travis Hafner is also now in that mix for at bats among the role players. The left handed power hitter has agreed to a one year, approximately $2 million deal with the Yankees.

The downsides of Hafner are clear. He has missed the 100 games played mark in four of the last five seasons. Shoulder and back issues have forced the former MVP candidate to miss much time and average just 86 games played since the 2008 season. Although he can still be productive when he is healthy--.789 OPS during that time--a team can no longer rely on him as a full time player. Because the Indians signed him to a long term deal and he took up a significant percentage of their salary, Hafner�s absence was quite impactful to them.

But, the Yankees aren�t paying him to be that person. They are paying him as a part time player who won�t be a regular, given the Yankees� age and need to rotate the DH spot. They are paying him to be a role player against right handed pitching, which is a role he can excel in. For his career, he has hit right handers at a .287/.391/.534 rate. Even during his injury plagued 2012 season, he posted a .798 OPS against right handers.

Given the low salary and the veteran depth of the Yankees, taking a chance with Hafner is a smart idea. He won�t be that MVP candidate, but he is an upgrade over last year�s left handed DH Raul Ibanez. As long as the Yankees are comfortable with Hafner spending time on the disabled list and are willing to limit him to between 80 to 100 games, he can be an asset. The Yankees haven�t spent much, but Brian Cashman is once again giving Joe Girardi a veteran bench that is deep.

Pitch Three: LaTroy Hawkins Signs With the Mets
In an effort to fortify their bullpen, the New York Mets signed 40-year-old reliever LaTroy Hawkins to a Minor League contract with an invitation to spring training. Hawkins has been effective over the past couple seasons in a limited role. Pitching for the Brewers (2011) and Angels (2012), Hawkins has averaged 45 innings pitched over the past two seasons, posting a 2.99 ERA, 9.8 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 5.3 K/9. Hawkins struggled in the second half of last season, but a return to the National League could help.

The positive aspect of this signing isn�t really about Hawkins. It�s more about the Mets still being active and being smart with fortifying their bullpen. By waiting, the Mets can take low risk chances on relievers like Hawkins, Jose Valverde or Francisco Rodriguez. With a what will eventually be a young rotation, stocking the bullpen is quite important.

Pitch Four: Indians Sign Matt Capps
The Indians spent big on Nick Swisher and made a great trade to acquire Trevor Bauer. Now, they add 29-year-old Matt Capps on a Minor League deal. Capps started the 2012 season as the Twins� closer, but shoulder inflammation led to him making just 30 appearances all season. From 2006 through 2011, the right handed reliever averaged 68 appearances per season 9.9 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 6.6 K/9 along with a 3.50 ERA and 21 saves per season.

Miscast as a closer, Capps has proven to be better than league average in most seasons. The Indians take a minimal risk with the Minor League deal that Capps can stay healthy and be a solid member of the bullpen. If healthy, Capps could provide a solid middle relief option ahead of Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone. His strikeout rate is problematic, but he doesn�t walk many batters and could prove useful in a less stressful role.

Pitch Five: Scott Rolen
After two injury plagued seasons that limited the third baseman to just 157 games played in that time and poor production (.244/.301/.397), there was a thought that Scott Rolen would call it a career. But, in the past weeks, there are signs that Rolen may want to continue his career. The Dodgers have already reached out to the 38-year-old veteran and there is still a chance that the Reds would want him back.

Rolen isn�t able to play a full season anymore, but if he is willing to accept a part time role, he can still be useful. Even though he has been limited, his defensive metrics are still above average. Limiting Rolen to 80 games per season could help him improve his offensive production and still allow a team to benefit from his defensive abilities.

The Dodgers do make sense in that they have so much depth. The Reds could use Todd Frazier as their primary third baseman and then allow Rolen to play third to either allow Frazier to play another position or have a day off. The perfect fit may be in Atlanta. The Braves currently have a platoon of Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson at third base. Rolen would be a better fit and deepen the Braves� bench.

Comments

# 1 boomhauertjs @ Feb 4

Stick a fork in Hafner, he's done. The few times he was healthy last year, he was pretty awful. Check out his numbers with runners in scoring position.